stuff on my mind

1. from Donnie Hoover, my college pastor:
• "A True Leader models before men that which they desire of them".
2. The things that break God's heart ought to break ours:
• a neighbor's loneliness;
• a child who doesn't know what it is like to be a child;
• bitterness;
3. We are not trustworthy; God is. We do not need to spend our efforts and concern our lives with whether or not the person we are dealing with is trustworthy... because they are not. Do not rely on their trustworthiness, but rather on God's. By faith (and not by sight), He takes care of us.
4. We know grace because we have received it. Grace does not originate within ourselves, but is a learned behavior. The presence of God is found in the extension of grace to others. Forgiveness is the calling card of Jehovah God, and the mark of His children.

155 day Election prophecy

This isn't at all political... just some rudimentary analysis of trends:
In the last four elections (1992-2004):

• 36 of 51 states (incl. D.C.) voted completely consistent from '92 - '04 election to election... either voting four times for Democrats or for Republicans;
• these 36 states account for 244 electoral votes for Democrats (18 states + D.C.) and 148 electoral votes for Republicans (17 states), providing a pretty solid starting base for each party going into a national election;
• by law, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election;
• therefore, if we make the initial assumption that these 36 states will continue their voting trends over the last 20 years, the democratic candidate for President will need 26 electoral votes or the republican candidate for President will need 122 electoral votes to win the election.
• these votes are coming from 15 states, with 146 electoral votes (state, # of electoral votes, and the last four election results):
• Arizona (10) (3R, 1D)
• Arkansas (10) (2 R, 2D)
• Colorado (9) (3R, 1D)
• Florida (27) (3R, 1D)
• Iowa (7) (1R, 3D)
• * Kentucky (8) (2R, 2D)
• * Louisiana (11) (2R, 2D)
• * Missouri (11) (2R, 2D)
• Montana (3) (3R, 1D)
• * Nevada (5) (2R, 2D)
• New Hampshire (4) (1R, 3D)
• New Mexico (5) (1D, 3R)
• * Ohio (20) (2R, 2D)
• * Tennessee (11) (2R, 2D)
• * West Virginia (5) (2R, 2D)

* These six states have correctly voted for the election winner in each of the four elections. They are batting 1.000.

• there are a couple of points in the above that are make their outcome in this '08 election pretty easy to predict:
• Arkansas and Tennessee were carried by the home-state Clinton/Gore tickets of '92 & '96, but were handily won by Republicans in '00 & '04. It is likely they will go Republican;
• Montana's single Democrat vote was in '92, but has continuously trended more Republican in each subsequent election;
• New Hampshire went all 1792 on us in the '00, but won't be found making that diversion of character again - pretty easy to bet Democrat here;
• a revised likely projection of the electoral votes without either candidate spending a dime on spin after accounting for the first 40 states (the 36 original and the 4 above) has the Democratic candidate for President needing 22 electoral votes or the Republican candidate for President needing 99 electoral votes to win the election.

For the final 11 states, I must say that things are looking pretty good for Obama... if he picks up Florida and sleeps through the rest of the campaign, it would look like a pretty reasonable win. Before we write McCain off however, I need to mention that the Republican candidate won 9 of these 11 states the last two elections (including "my precious", Florida). Six of these states (AZ, FL, KY, LA, MO, WV) have grown consistently more Republican in their voting over the past four elections (including Florida), giving the Republican candidate a strong shot at their 67 electoral votes. 
Result: there is a large lead for any Democratic candidate in 'guaranteed' electoral votes, but the 11 swing states have favored the Red Elephant in recent years. With Florida and Ohio carrying 47 total electoral votes and the remaining nine states carrying 77 (of which 40 are trending Republican), these two states will be the battleground of the election. If a single candidate wins both of these states, they will certainly win the election. If they lose them, there is almost no chance of them winning the election. If they split (which hasn't happened since '92), the college will implode and we'll play King of the Hill to see who will lead us.

Conclusion:

• McCain will cover the spread on his initial 17 states and 123 electoral votes,
• He will take care of the three anomaly states and their 24 electoral votes,
• He will carry the six Republican trending swing states (including Florida) and their 67 electoral votes,
• He'll pick up his three western neighbor swing states (CO, NM, NV) and their 19 electoral votes,
• He will lose the tenth swing state (IA) because eventually luck runs out,
• and His realistic understanding of the globalization of the world manufacturing economy will be exploited by the Obama campaign to the effect of Ohio and its 20 electoral votes being won by the Democrat;
• McCain: 29 states, 263 electoral votes;
• Obama: 21 states (and D.C.), 275 electoral votes.