In the last four elections (1992-2004):
- 36 of 51 states (incl. D.C.) voted completely consistent from '92 - '04 election to election... either voting four times for Democrats or for Republicans;
- these 36 states account for 244 electoral votes for Democrats (18 states + D.C.) and 148 electoral votes for Republicans (17 states), providing a pretty solid starting base for each party going into a national election;
- by law, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election;
- therefore, if we make the initial assumption that these 36 states will continue their voting trends over the last 20 years, the democratic candidate for President will need 26 electoral votes or the republican candidate for President will need 122 electoral votes to win the election.
- these votes are coming from 15 states, with 146 electoral votes (state, # of electoral votes, and the last four election results):
- Arizona (10) (3R, 1D)
- Arkansas (10) (2 R, 2D)
- Colorado (9) (3R, 1D)
- Florida (27) (3R, 1D)
- Iowa (7) (1R, 3D)
- * Kentucky (8) (2R, 2D)
- * Louisiana (11) (2R, 2D)
- * Missouri (11) (2R, 2D)
- Montana (3) (3R, 1D)
- * Nevada (5) (2R, 2D)
- New Hampshire (4) (1R, 3D)
- New Mexico (5) (1D, 3R)
- * Ohio (20) (2R, 2D)
- * Tennessee (11) (2R, 2D)
- * West Virginia (5) (2R, 2D)
- there are a couple of points in the above that are make their outcome in this '08 election pretty easy to predict:
- Arkansas and Tennessee were carried by the home-state Clinton/Gore tickets of '92 & '96, but were handily won by Republicans in '00 & '04. It is likely they will go Republican;
- Montana's single Democrat vote was in '92, but has continuously trended more Republican in each subsequent election;
- New Hampshire went all 1792 on us in the '00, but won't be found making that diversion of character again - pretty easy to bet Democrat here;
- a revised likely projection of the electoral votes without either candidate spending a dime on spin after accounting for the first 40 states (the 36 original and the 4 above) has the Democratic candidate for President needing 22 electoral votes or the Republican candidate for President needing 99 electoral votes to win the election.
Result: there is a large lead for any Democratic candidate in 'guaranteed' electoral votes, but the 11 swing states have favored the Red Elephant in recent years. With Florida and Ohio carrying 47 total electoral votes and the remaining nine states carrying 77 (of which 40 are trending Republican), these two states will be the battleground of the election. If a single candidate wins both of these states, they will certainly win the election. If they lose them, there is almost no chance of them winning the election. If they split (which hasn't happened since '92), the college will implode and we'll play King of the Hill to see who will lead us.
Conclusion:
- McCain will cover the spread on his initial 17 states and 123 electoral votes,
- He will take care of the three anomaly states and their 24 electoral votes,
- He will carry the six Republican trending swing states (including Florida) and their 67 electoral votes,
- He'll pick up his three western neighbor swing states (CO, NM, NV) and their 19 electoral votes,
- He will lose the tenth swing state (IA) because eventually luck runs out,
- and His realistic understanding of the globalization of the world manufacturing economy will be exploited by the Obama campaign to the effect of Ohio and its 20 electoral votes being won by the Democrat;
- McCain: 29 states, 263 electoral votes;
- Obama: 21 states (and D.C.), 275 electoral votes.